Milk Shortages: David Ndii's Perspective
President William Ruto’s economic adviser, David Ndii, has attributed the recent milk shortages on supermarket shelves to rising demand. He argues that workers at affordable housing and other construction sites are among the new consumers driving consumption.
Ndii asserts that Kenya has not experienced a milk production shortage. According to him, national output and the amount of milk taken in by processors have increased since the current administration took office.
He cites Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) data, indicating a 20% rise in milk production to approximately 5.6 billion litres and a 34% increase in milk intake by processors over the same period.
“If there is no reduction in supply, and there is actually a very sharp increase in both production and the intake by processors, what can explain the stock-outs on the shelves?” Ndii questioned.
He posits that increased demand is the primary explanation, citing construction sites as an example where milk consumption may have risen.
“If you go to any of our construction sites, where we are doing affordable housing, where there are a couple of hundred thousand people working every day, you will find crates of milk sitting there,” he noted.
Ndii suggests that milk is among the provisions made available to construction site workers, implying a shift in consumption patterns among lower-income households.
His comments come amidst ongoing reports of milk shortages in supermarkets and retail outlets, with some shops rationing purchases and consumers struggling to find their preferred brands.
A report in October 19 revealed a decline in formal milk deliveries to processors from 88.89 million litres in May to 75 million litres in August 2026, a drop of approximately 16%. The Kenya Dairy Board attributed this largely to drought and pressure on animal feed.
The KNBS August 2026 Leading Economic Indicators dashboard also showed a decrease in formal milk intake to 77.1 million litres, down 5.1% from the previous month.
These figures highlight a distinction between total milk production and the volume entering formal processing channels. Increased annual production does not always guarantee consistent deliveries to processors or adequate stocks of packaged milk in shops.
Ndii maintains that rising consumption is a likely reason for the stockouts, which have also impacted prices. KNBS data showed a 6% increase in fresh packaged milk prices in September and an 8% rise in ultra-high-temperature milk.